Sixteen years ago this month there was panic
across central Asia. Having captured Kabul, the Taliban were moving
northwards and some commanders were threatening to Talibanise the entire
region. That prompted Russia and China to promise support to the
ex-Soviet states across the region.
A
flurry of security officials from Nato, the US and the EU have been
visiting the region trying to reassure the governments in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan that border Afghanistan, and fragile
Kyrgyzstan, over increased aid and security. US officials are also
believed to be offering sales of unwanted heavy weapons from the Afghan
theatre.
But at the same time Russia and China are trying to wean those
governments away from the US, with Vladimir Putin in particular making a
determined effort to return central Asia to Russia’s backyard.
In October Mr Putin signed a new 30-year treaty to secure a base in
Tajikistan. A joint Russian-Tajik statement spoke of “the threat of
terrorism and drug trafficking from Afghanistan”. The 7,000 Russian
troops based in Tajikistan might increase. A month earlier Mr Putin had
signed a treaty with Kyrgyzstan extending an air base lease for 20
years.
Russia is also adamantly opposing US plans to maintain small military
bases in Afghanistan post-2014 for special forces, drone missiles and
trainers for the Afghan army.
Post-September 11 the Taliban threat receded but today central Asians are once again panicking at the thought of US troops exiting Afghanistan. Added to the threat of a resurgent Taliban are domestic Islamist extremist groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU),
whose members have spent the past decade in Pakistan’s tribal regions
and are now, armed and battle ready, re-entering central Asia through
northern Afghanistan.
China has been offering greater security through the Shanghai
Co-operation Organisation – a regional pact that is yet to really take
off – as well as using its long term ally Pakistan to gain influence
with the Taliban. India too has a growing presence, with a military base
in Tajikistan and oil and mineral stakes in Kazakhstan.
This represents an intensification of the new Great Game that erupted in the region after the break-up of the Soviet Union.
Mr Putin’s aim is to ensure that the US is left with little presence
in the region. At present Russia allows Nato supplies to travel through
its territory to Afghanistan. The US has negotiated similar rights for
its withdrawal from Afghanistan to reduce dependence on the southern
route, which Pakistan closed earlier this year during a spat with the
US. But Russia will make sure that these transit facilities end after
2014.
So far only Uzbekistan has dissented from the Russian line. In July
President Islam Karimov withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty
Organisation (CSTO) of pro-Moscow states. He has also offered the
Americans long-term facilities and is negotiating for US weapons
supplies. But even if Mr Karimov – a ruthless dictator who has refused
to carry out economic reforms – can resist Russian pressure for long, he
is hardly an ideal ally for the west.
In the meantime Nato forces in northern Afghanistan are doing their
best to eliminate the central Asian Islamic militant groups. The IMU in
particular has proved to be a long-term threat and is now closely tied
to al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba. Counting only a few hundred
Uzbek and Tajik fighters in the late 1990s, the group now has thousands
of militants drawn from all central Asian states as well as China,
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Chechnya.
Yet for all the anxiety in Moscow and Washington about the shifting
balance of power in Afghanistan, it does not represent the greatest
threat to central Asia. What could really undermine the ex-Soviet states
is the increasing pauperisation of their people, the collapse of
services such as health and education, and the excesses of dictators and
failure of governments – except for Kyrgyzstan’s – to carry out any
political, social or economic reforms. Unfortunately as the new Great
Game continues, both Russia and the US are ignoring the social and
economic crisis that is about to erupt in central Asia. That crisis will
not be because of Afghanistan.
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